Eisenkot’s Rise Puts Netanyahu Under Pressure Before Israel Vote

JERUSALEM — A dramatic recalibration of the Israeli political landscape is under way as prediction markets and national polling point to an accelerating shift in power. Former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as the frontrunner to replace Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister, even as the incumbent aggressively campaigns on a historic security platform while continuing to fight a long-running corruption trial that could still carry serious legal consequences. Reuters

On September 7, Polymarket traders gave Eisenkot an implied 51 percent probability of becoming Israel’s next prime minister, compared with 28 percent for Netanyahu. The market has moved sharply in recent months, making the figures a snapshot of trader expectations rather than a forecast of the eventual result. Secondary contenders, including former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett of the B’Yachad (Together) alliance — the joint list formed by Bennett’s party and Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid — and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman, remain far behind in single digits.

The shift on prediction boards reflects a broader movement within domestic polling. Eisenkot’s security-focused platform has propelled Yashar ahead of or level with Netanyahu’s Likud in recent polling on projected Knesset seats. His military record and personal losses — he lost both his son and nephew in combat during the war — have helped shape his public image as a security-focused alternative to Netanyahu. Times of Israel

However, analysts caution that market odds do not translate directly into guaranteed electoral outcomes. Polymarket liquidity can be heavily influenced by high-volume individual traders, and Israel’s parliamentary system demands complex coalition arithmetic. Israelis vote for parties, not directly for a prime minister; the office goes to whoever can assemble a governing coalition. The key number is 61: a coalition needs the support of at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 members, regardless of which single party wins the most seats — a threshold that frequently defies simple popular vote margins. Anadolu

To counter his surging rivals, Netanyahu has increasingly framed the election around Israel’s security and its confrontation with Iran, arguing that continued military pressure is necessary to prevent Tehran from rebuilding its strategic capabilities. Campaigning heavily on “unfinished business,” he has cast the collapse or removal of the Iranian regime as a central, achievable mission and maintains that military operations against Iranian infrastructure have already critically weakened Tehran — arguing that his continued tenure is essential to finishing the job. Al Jazeera

While avoiding explicit terms like “total control” to dodge diplomatic backlash, Netanyahu has presented continued Israeli military dominance and deterrence as central to his vision for the region, positioning confronting Iran and weakening the regional networks aligned with Tehran as the mandatory step to unlocking expanded normalization under the Abraham Accords. Opponents have dismissed the argument as an effort to extend Netanyahu’s own political survival rather than a realistic military or diplomatic objective.

Underpinning this intense electoral battle is the looming threat of the judicial system. Netanyahu remains on trial in the Jerusalem District Court on charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust across Cases 1000, 2000, and 4000. Reuters A bribery conviction carries a maximum penalty of up to 10 years in prison, while fraud and breach of trust each carry up to three years. Library of Congress In June, the judges again suggested that prosecutors consider dropping the bribery charge in Case 4000, while the breach-of-trust allegations remain part of the indictment. Times of Israel No charges have been dropped and no verdict has been reached.

Israeli law allows a sitting prime minister to remain in office throughout the trial and any subsequent appeals. But losing the premiership would strip Netanyahu of the political leverage that comes with incumbency — including his ability to influence the composition of the Knesset committees and legislative agenda that have, at times, been used to explore changes to the judicial system. Reuters

A conviction could eventually expose Netanyahu to a prison sentence, depending on the specific charges upheld, the sentence handed down, and the outcome of any appeal. Under Israel’s Basic Law: The Government, a conviction for an offense involving moral turpitude can trigger a Knesset process for removing a sitting prime minister, while the prime minister’s service is terminated automatically if the conviction becomes final. Precedent is not encouraging for the long-serving leader: former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert served 16 months in prison following his 2016 corruption conviction — a precedent for how Israel’s judiciary has treated a former top leader, though not a guarantee of how Netanyahu’s case will resolve.