Nigeria’s Debt Under Tinubu Nears Buhari-Era Increase

By the end of 2025, more than two years into President Bola Tinubu’s administration, Nigeria’s reported public-debt stock had grown by an amount nearly matching what accumulated under his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, over eight years in office — a compression that has reignited debate over the pace, composition, and true drivers of the country’s borrowing.

According to Debt Management Office (DMO) figures, Nigeria’s total public debt stock rose from N87.38 trillion at the end of June 2023 to N159.28 trillion by December 2025 — an increase of N71.90 trillion in roughly two and a half years. The DMO’s December 2025 figure covers the Federal Government, the 36 states, and the Federal Capital Territory.

By comparison, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at about N12.1 trillion in June 2015, shortly after Muhammadu Buhari assumed office, and reached N87.38 trillion by June 2023. That represents an increase of about N75.28 trillion over roughly eight years.

On a simple annualised comparison of changes in the reported public-debt stock, the increase under Tinubu has occurred at a substantially faster pace than under Buhari. However, this is a comparison of debt-stock changes, not a measure of fresh borrowing alone, because debt stocks can also change through exchange-rate movements, recognition or securitisation of existing obligations, and other adjustments.

A Currency Story as Much as a Borrowing Story

Part of the increase in the naira value of Nigeria’s public debt reflects exchange-rate effects rather than equivalent amounts of fresh borrowing. Because a substantial portion of Nigeria’s debt is denominated in foreign currencies, the depreciation of the naira following the exchange-rate reforms introduced shortly after Tinubu took office increased the naira equivalent of existing external obligations. The effect was therefore capable of raising the reported naira debt stock even where no corresponding new dollar loan had been contracted.

The DMO’s December 2025 figures themselves illustrate why currency conversion matters: the agency reported total public debt of N159.28 trillion, equivalent to about $110.97 billion, using the applicable official exchange rate.

The Federal Government has publicly rejected claims that Tinubu has borrowed N80 trillion or more, arguing such figures conflate genuine new borrowing with currency devaluation effects and accounting reclassifications inherited from the previous administration.

The Ways and Means Comparison That Doesn’t Hold Up

Much of the online debate has centered on a specific claim: that Tinubu borrowed more in one year than Buhari did in eight. That claim traces to comparisons of Tinubu’s total public-debt increase against Buhari’s “Ways and Means” advances alone — a financing mechanism through which the Central Bank of Nigeria provided advances to the Federal Government, which were subsequently subject to restructuring and securitisation.

A major complication is the treatment of Ways and Means advances from the Central Bank of Nigeria. During Buhari’s administration, the Federal Government accumulated substantial Ways and Means obligations, part of which was subsequently securitised and incorporated into the formal public-debt stock. The precise figure used in political comparisons therefore depends on whether the comparison is between Ways and Means advances alone or total public debt.

Fact-checkers, including Dubawa, found that the viral comparison juxtaposed Tinubu’s total debt-stock increase with Buhari’s Ways and Means figure alone — rather than comparing like-for-like debt measures, a mismatch that produces a misleadingly dramatic contrast.

The Domestic Debt Picture

Federal and sub-national domestic debt also increased over the period. Available DMO-based figures put domestic debt at about N59.1 trillion at the end of 2023 and N84.85 trillion by December 2025. The composition includes conventional domestic instruments as well as the effects of the securitisation and recognition of earlier Ways and Means obligations.

What the Money Is Costing

DMO data show that total debt-service payments rose from N7.79 trillion in 2023 to N16.26 trillion in 2025, more than doubling over the two-year period.

In 2024, debt service consumed about 60.73% of federal government revenue, according to figures reported from DMO data. The ratio highlights the central fiscal concern: Nigeria’s challenge is not simply the size of its debt stock, but the government’s relatively weak revenue base and the growing amount of revenue required to service existing obligations.

Two Governments, Two Justifications

Both administrations have defended their borrowing as necessary. Buhari’s government pointed to security spending, infrastructure deficits, and the economic shocks of the 2016 and 2020 recessions. Tinubu’s government has pointed to the cost of unwinding decades of fuel subsidies and exchange-rate distortions — reforms that, while credited by some international observers for improving Nigeria’s macroeconomic fundamentals, have required substantial financing to cushion their short-term impact on households and government revenue.

Whether the pace of debt accumulation represents prudent financing of structural reforms or an increasingly difficult fiscal burden remains contested. What the available data establish more clearly is that Nigeria’s reported public-debt stock and debt-service costs have risen substantially during Tinubu’s tenure, while the causes of that increase include fresh financing, exchange-rate effects, and the incorporation of previously accumulated obligations. That distinction is likely to remain central to the economic debate as Nigeria approaches its next election cycle.

Sources: Debt Management Office (DMO) publications and independently reported analyses, including Dubawa and relevant financial reporting. The Federal Government disputes some borrowing estimates attributed to it by commentators and independent analysts.